The Square Deal

As if losing 10 primaries and caucuses in a row wasn’t enough of a red flag, this article at Politico digs into the money troubles plaguing the Senator’s presidential campaign. (HT: Political Wire)

 Former President Clinton is right.  Texas and Ohio are do or die.

This post in the Boston Globe’s Political Intelligence blog points to a report published at capitaleye.org (HT: Drudge Report).  The study takes a look at the money that the Obama and Clinton campaigns are handing out to the so-called Superdelegates.

Remember what the late Jesse Unruh said:  “Money is the mother’s milk of politics.”

McCain won the most delegates by far.  Huckabee had the largest number of surprise victories.  And Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton fought tooth and nail for the delegate lead all night.  However the big winner in all of it is the American people.

After a week of the chattering class declaring their undying hatred of all things McCain and Huckabee, it was those two very candidates who carried the day in the GOP.

Two weeks after every poll showed Clinton leading big in all the Super Tuesday states, the junior Senator from New York found herself in a pitched battle for delegates with an upstart challenger from Illinois.

The experts had spoken.  But the voters had a different idea.  If there has been one constant in this Presidential primary season it has been the refusal of the people to bow to the whims of the elite.

The American people will not be told how to vote.  This country belongs to them and they know it.  And that is the most inspiring story coming out of this Super Tuesday.

Very bad.  He may not know it yet.  He may not admit it yet.  But Mitt Romney’s race for the Presidency is effectively over.  McCain took California.  And it wasn’t close.

Karl Rove was on Fox News earlier saying that Huckabee and Romney look to be locked in a neck and neck race for second in the Super Tuesday delegate race at around 2o0 total for each.  That would leave roughly 600 for McCain if Rove’s math holds.

Huckabee’s won Alabama, West Virginia, Arkansas, Tennessee, and Georgia.  He’s ahead in Missouri.  Very impressive.

The numbers aren’t all in, but Romney is running third across the South.  In perhaps the most conservative part of the country, the candidate of the conservative elite is getting worked by Huckabee and McCain.

Right now it looks like I overestimated Romney and underestimated Huckabee.  Stay tuned for more.

Democrats

Obama is surging, no doubt about it.  The big victory in South Carolina gave him some real juice.  The question is will it be enough?  Was there enough time on the clock for him to close the gap in critical Super Tuesday states?  Two weeks ago Senator Clinton enjoyed big margins in these states.  Not so anymore.

Obama doesn’t have to win everywhere, of course, since the Democratic primaries / caucuses award delegates in proportion to the popular vote.  A few big wins and a lot of close 2nd’s gives the challenger a lot of fuel to keep his campaign going.  (A win in California, for example–which I now expect–would be huge, as he was down by about 20 percentage points at the time of the South Carolina primary)

 Here is how I see the delegate split working out for the Dems:

Clinton 900     Obama 788

Republicans

The polls seem to be showing a late surge for Romney in the delegate rich state of California.  I don’t think he’ll be winning a lot of states nationally (Utah, certainly, and Colorado to be sure).  But a win in California gives his flagging campaign some more life.  Will it be enough to put him on the A-Train to the nomination?  No.  However it would buy him some more time during which he could conceivably rally the conservative ground troops to his cause (which boils down mainly to beating John McCain).  I still expect McCain to be the GOP nominee in November.  But if Romney wins in California, he gets a repreive.

Here’s how I see the Republican delegates being apportioned Tuesday night:

McCain 541     Romney 301     Huckabee 181

Be sure to tune in Wednesday to see just how much crow I have to eat!

Steve Forbes and former Solicitor General Ted Olson have endorsed Senator McCain. (HT: Real Clear Politics)

As I speculated in an earlier post, it looks like GOP leaders are beginning to unite behind the maverick Senator from Arizona.  Americans love a winner, as General George S. Patton once said, and McCain has the feel of one right now.

The Super Tuesday poll average at Real Clear Politics doesn’t provide much good news for Romney, either.  So it’s not just the establishment that’s rallying to McCain.  Looks like much of the rank and file are too.

It’s an unscientific estimate, however looking at some of the poll numbers, the delegate counts, and the trends, Super Tuesday seems to be shaping up as a big night for McCain.  My preliminary–and incomplete–count shows that McCain may be headed towards collecting on the order of 400 delegates in one night (thanks in no small part to winner-take-all primaries in New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Delaware, and Arizona).

As I say, this is an incomplete estimate and I’m certainly not hanging my hat on it just yet.    There isn’t much data for some of the smaller states that will be voting, and that creates some guesswork.  A final calculation could go higher or lower (though my bet right now would be on higher).   Nonetheless February 5th is looking pretty good for McCain.  I will post my predictions Monday night / Tuesday morning.