Democrats
Obama is surging, no doubt about it. The big victory in South Carolina gave him some real juice. The question is will it be enough? Was there enough time on the clock for him to close the gap in critical Super Tuesday states? Two weeks ago Senator Clinton enjoyed big margins in these states. Not so anymore.
Obama doesn’t have to win everywhere, of course, since the Democratic primaries / caucuses award delegates in proportion to the popular vote. A few big wins and a lot of close 2nd’s gives the challenger a lot of fuel to keep his campaign going. (A win in California, for example–which I now expect–would be huge, as he was down by about 20 percentage points at the time of the South Carolina primary)
Here is how I see the delegate split working out for the Dems:
Clinton 900 Obama 788
Republicans
The polls seem to be showing a late surge for Romney in the delegate rich state of California. I don’t think he’ll be winning a lot of states nationally (Utah, certainly, and Colorado to be sure). But a win in California gives his flagging campaign some more life. Will it be enough to put him on the A-Train to the nomination? No. However it would buy him some more time during which he could conceivably rally the conservative ground troops to his cause (which boils down mainly to beating John McCain). I still expect McCain to be the GOP nominee in November. But if Romney wins in California, he gets a repreive.
Here’s how I see the Republican delegates being apportioned Tuesday night:
McCain 541 Romney 301 Huckabee 181
Be sure to tune in Wednesday to see just how much crow I have to eat!
